Why Are Youth Leaving or Not Joining Programs?
Introduction
Survival Response
The Scope of the Crisis
Research Findings
The Ultimate Disparity
Actionable Insights
Essential Terms of Understanding
Research Sources
Approximately 10 minutes to read without sources.
Introduction
This crisis is something I, and my colleagues are experiencing every day. In organizations and gatherings throughout Colorado, I constantly hear the same urgent question: “Why are Youth Leaving or Not Joining Programs?” For those of us who work with youth daily, the deeper, more painful question is: where are all the youth from Communities Facing Systemic Barriers?
This report is an effort to find out why this is happening. It brings together national and state-level quantitative research, augmented by recent Colorado focus group data (Spring 2025), to explain the systemic disturbances at play. I offer this insight so that others—practitioners, families, and community leaders—might offer their own experiences and join the search for solutions.
The research confirms what our hearts suspect: when we see fewer young people joining, it is not because they don't want or need support. It is because the system is creating a disturbance that forces a survival response, which acts as a barrier to access.
Survival Response
Youth are withdrawing from community programs as a survival response to systemic hostility, not due to lack of interest. This crisis is defined by two primary, interlocking barriers for 2SLGBTQIA+ and BIPOC youth:
Systemic Fear (The "Chilling Effect")
The Core Barrier: Recent Executive Orders (January 2025) that targeted DEI initiatives and rescinded protections for transgender students have accelerated systemic fear and created an environment where public engagement feels actively unsafe.
The Trackable Consequence (Withdrawal): Applied to the national Sexual Minority Youth population, the 30% withdrawal rate seen in immigrant youth research demonstrates at least 4,050,000 youth are blocked from support due to safety fears.
Resource Failure (Minority Stress)
The Core Barrier: Lack of safe transportation, safe spaces, and economic exclusion (cost of programs) form physical barriers to access, fueling chronic Minority Stress.
The Trackable Consequence (Worsening Lethal Risk): Suicidal ideation among 2SLGBTQIA+ youth rose by 6 points (from 41% to 47%) between September 2023 and March 2025. 4 in 10 (39%) 2SLGBTQIA+ youth seriously considered suicide in the past year.
The Goal? Programs must address these systemic disturbances to restore trust and access.
Crucially, the withdrawal estimate is conservative and does not include the unquantified, additional mass withdrawal of BIPOC and immigrant youth without 2SLGBTQIA+ identities, or those with intersecting identities.
The Scope of the Crisis: Millions Blocked
The population groups most impacted by systemic barriers are immense in number.
Sexual Minority Youth (Gay, Bisexual, Questioning, etc.):
Colorado Estimate: 21.6% is approximately 192,400 youth
U.S. National Estimate: Up to 25% is approximately 13.5 Million youth
Gender Minority Youth (Transgender, Nonbinary, etc.):
Colorado Estimate: 9.4% is approximately 83,700 youth
U.S. National Estimate: approximately 5.1 Million youth
Note: These distinct groups often overlap with BIPOC and immigrant youth, facing compounded threats.
Research Findings: The Two Core Disturbances
The research shows that a decrease in participation is not apathy; it is a logical response to environments that are hostile, dangerous, or inaccessible.
Problem 1: Safety and Exclusion (Minority Stress)
The core "disturbance" is that youth feel unsafe and unaffirmed because of their identity, rooted in Minority Stress.
Minority Stress is the unique, chronic, and severe mental and emotional toll of dealing with constant prejudice and discrimination. This constant pressure triggers a physical 'Flight, Fight, or Freeze' survival response. For young people, 'Flight' means withdrawing from public spaces for self-protection.
This chronic stress is the root cause of high fear and low access:
Access Failure: 5 in 10 (50%) 2SLGBTQIA+ youth wanted help but couldn't get it, representing approximately 96,200 youth in Colorado blocked from support.
School Hostility (Verbal Bullying): 8 in 10 (80%) 2SLGBTQIA+ students report verbal bullying, affecting approximately 154,000 youth in Colorado and over approximately 10.8 Million youth nationally.
Local Support Failure: 6 in 10 (60%) Colorado youth approximately 115,500 students do not feel supported in their schools.
(Note: For comparison across different surveys, the 80% bullying rate applied to the full is approximately 13.5 million national estimate for sexual minority youth.)
Political Acceleration of Hostility and Worsening Mental Health
The recent actions taken by the administration since January 2025 have directly impacted the education system, with specific policies targeting Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives and protections for 2SLGBTQIA+ youth.
Attacks on DEI and Student Support:
Multiple Executive Orders were signed to eliminate all DEI and equity-related programs and mandates within the federal government and across education.
The U.S. Department of Education dissolved its Employee Engagement Diversity Equity Inclusion Accessibility Council, removed guidance documents, and announced cuts to DEI-focused grants.
Direct Attacks on 2SLGBTQIA+ and Transgender Youth Protections:
Executive Orders directed the Department of Education to rescind guidance that extended Title IX protections to include gender identity, returning enforcement to "biological sex."
These orders also call for the restriction of federal funding for schools that recognize a student’s gender identity (e.g., preferred names/pronouns), allow use of consistent facilities (restrooms/lockers), or allow participation on sports teams consistent with gender identity.
Worsening Mental Health Data:
The latest longitudinal data (September 2023 to March 2025), which overlapped with this surge in hostile rhetoric and policy focus, shows substantial increases in distress:
Anxiety Symptoms: Rose from 57% to 68% - up 11%
Suicidal Ideation: Rose from 41% to 47% -up 6%
Depressive Symptoms: Rose from 48% to 54% - up 6%
Transgender and nonbinary youth were nearly twice as likely to report anxiety (70%) and suicidal ideation (53%) compared to their cisgender 2SLGBTQIA+ peers. The study directly confirms that experiences of discrimination and threats led to higher odds of these poor mental health outcomes.
Youth Voices: Increase in Anxiety and Institutional Negligence
Recent qualitative research from One Colorado Youth Focus Groups (Spring 2025) confirms a generalized sense of anxiety about the future and reports a sharp increase in verbal and nonverbal harassment since the last election. The accounts illustrate how this fear forces youth to withdraw due to familial coercion and institutional negligence:
“My Dad and Grandma... found out that I identify as transgender. They told me I can't use my pronouns or name anymore and can't leave the house.” (Direct Account from Report Context)
“Someone told me to kill myself and I told a teacher and the teacher told me to just move... and we had to get the cops involved.” (Quote from One Colorado Focus Group Report, Salida Participant)
“Even random strangers have been noticeably worse in the area, I have a pride jacket and I’ve gotten weird looks in the past and now I’ve gotten direct sh*tty remarks about it a few times since the election.” (Quote from One Colorado Focus Group Report, Durango Participant)
This data underscores that even when youth attempt to use school support systems, teachers and administrators are often unresponsive or ineffective, forcing youth to choose between seeking support and risking their physical or psychological safety.
Problem 2: Security Risk, Cost, and Rural Barriers
Participation is stopped by financial costs and a deep, real fear for family safety, disproportionately affecting 2SLGBTQIA+, BIPOC, and immigrant youth, especially in rural areas.
The "Chilling Effect" is a widely documented fear of immigration enforcement (like ICE) that causes people to stop joining community life.
Scale of Withdrawal (A Conservative Proxy): Research shows that 3 out of 10 (30%) immigrant youth nationally stop joining programs due to fear. Applied to the national Sexual Minority Youth population (13.5 million), this demonstrates that at least 4,050,000 youth are blocked from support.
The Rural Divide: Safety Doesn't Reach
Colorado youth explicitly state that protective laws and services do not reach them in rural areas:
Logistical Barrier: Programs and services available for 2SLGBTQIA+ people in urban areas are sparse or nonexistent in rural settings.
Safety Gap: "As adults when we’re working with funders or collaborating with Denver or others... they think 'oh Colorado is safe' but the safety isn’t always outside of the Denver metro area and some of those things don’t always reach us here.” (Adult volunteer, One Colorado Focus Group Report, Durango Participant)
The Ultimate Disparity: Crisis-Level Suicidality
The high rate of suicidal ideation and attempts among 2SLGBTQIA+ youth is the most severe measure of this systemic mistreatment.
Data on Suicidal Behavior (Past Year):
Seriously Considered Suicide: 4 in 10 (39%) of all 2SLGBTQIA+ youth. This translates to approximately 75,000 youth in Colorado and approximately 5.27 Million youth nationally.
Attempted Suicide: 1 in 10 (12%) of all 2SLGBTQIA+ youth. This translates to approximately 23,000 youth in Colorado and approximately 1.62 Million youth nationally.
Trans/Nonbinary Attempt Rate (Highest Risk): Nearly 1 in 5 (approximately 16%). This translates to approximately 13,400 youth in Colorado and approximately 813,600 youth nationally. (Note: This rate is applied to the smaller, estimated Gender Minority Youth population for accuracy.)
The Historical Context: Stigma as the Cause
The suicide rates are not a feature of being 2SLGBTQIA+; they are a direct measure of the systemic failure to provide psychological and physical safety. The historical trend shows that when society and institutions move toward acceptance, the disparity shrinks.
Intersectionality: The cumulative effect of multiple systemic barriers is lethal: Native/Indigenous 2SLGBTQIA+ youth report attempt rates up to 24%, the highest of any racial/ethnic group.
Black LGBTQ+ young people and SWANA 2SLGBTQIA+ young people also report attempt rates significantly higher than their White peers (14% and 14% vs. 10% respectively)
Actionable Insights: A Path Forward
The One Colorado Youth Focus Groups’ participants offered clear, actionable ideas for community and state leaders seeking to reverse this crisis of access and trust:
Promote Visible Safety Symbols: Encourage organizations to display Pride flags and “Safe Space” stickers to signal immediate welcome and support.
Invest in Teacher and School Training: Provide skills-building training for school staff to effectively respond to and address harassment and threats.
Expand Inclusive Education: Mandate education about 2SLGBTQIA+ identities, history, and health in schools, and make this information available to adults.
Increase State Support for Safety: Call for State leaders to explicitly support inclusion, increase law enforcement training and protection for 2SLGBTQIA+ people, and ease legal pathways for name change (especially for transgender youth).
Strengthen Community Bonds: Dedicate resources to 2SLGBTQIA+ organizations, which were consistently named as major and important sources of joy and resilience for youth.
Essential Terms for Understanding
2SLGBTQIA+: (Two-spirit, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer/Questioning, Intersex, Agender) The comprehensive community this report focuses on.
Minority Stress: The unique, chronic stress from prejudice that triggers a physical survival response (Flight/Withdrawal).
Chilling Effect: A situation where fear (usually of law enforcement or deportation) causes people to stop joining community life.
Institutional Negligence: The failure of an institution (like a school or program) to implement policies that ensure safety, privacy, or dignity for all participants.
Intersectionality: The framework for understanding how different social identities combine to create unique, cumulative experiences of discrimination.
Research Sources
The facts and figures in this report are drawn from the following trusted organizations and data.
Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism And Restoring Biological Truth To The Federal Government. The White House Presidential Action Document, January 20, 2025.
Ending Radical And Wasteful Government DEI Programs And Preferencing. The White House Presidential Action Document, January 20, 2025.
Project SPARK Interim Report: A Longitudinal Study of Risk and Protective Factors in LGBTQ+ Youth Mental Health. The Trevor Project, 2023-2025. (Used for all Project SPARK data and Minority Stress context).
Analysis: Impact of Executive Order Imposing Restrictions on Transgender Students in K-12 Schools. Williams Institute, UCLA School of Law, February 2025. (Used for DOE Action, Title IX Enforcement, and K-12 Funding Restrictions).
President Trump Issues Sweeping Executive Orders Aimed at DEI. Law and the Workplace (referenced DOE Internal Memo and Public Statement), January 2025.
Trump's January 2025 Executive Orders: Implications for Employers. PBWT Publication, February 2025. (Used for DOE Training/Contract Cancellation Announcement context).
Trump 2.0 and Higher Education: Your Questions Answered. Jackson Lewis, February 2025. (Used for Higher Education Funding Threat/Freeze Documentation context).
Other General Sources
One Colorado Focus Groups Report (Spring 2025): Qualitative data on the lived experiences, anxiety, and service gaps for LGBTQ+ youth in rural Colorado.
The Trevor Project National Survey on LGBTQ Youth Mental Health 2021. The Trevor Project. (Used for general national survey data).
National School Climate Survey. GLSEN. (Used for school climate, bullying, and harassment data).
One in Five Adults in Immigrant Families with Children Reported 'Chilling Effects' on Public Benefit Receipt in 2019. Migration Policy Institute / Urban Institute. (Used for Chilling Effect studies).
Project Play Survey: Family Spending on Youth Sports Rises 46% Over Five Years. Frontiers in Public Health / Aspen Institute. (Used for Youth Sports Cost Studies/economic exclusion).
Preventive Medicine: National and State Estimates of Sexual Minority Identification. JAMA Pediatrics / Northwestern Medicine. (Used for Sexual Minority Identification Rates and population estimates).
School Enrollment Data. U.S. Census Bureau / NCES. (Used for general K-12 enrollment statistics).
La Voz de Summit: Oct. 9, 2025. Colorado School District Reports / Summit Daily. (Used for local attendance drop/Chilling Effect example).
Funding Opportunities. Colorado Health Foundation / CU Anschutz Medical Campus. (Used for documentation of funding priority for rural access and virtual support).
ACLU of Colorado v. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Colorado Advocacy Groups (ACLU of Colorado). (Used for local advocacy documentation confirming the impact of the Chilling Effect).
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Jimmy Sellars
Jimmy Sellars is an artist and community organizer.
